This last week has brought calmer waters for global financial markets, with volatility easing across major regions. It’s a shortened trading week in the UK, Europe, and the US, with markets closed on Good Friday, and UK and European exchanges also shut on Easter Monday.
After a stormy week, markets regained some composure on Tuesday, though some ended the day on a subdued note.
On Tuesday, the FTSE 100 and European stocks saw positive gains, while US stocks fluctuated before closing marginally higher. As we expected, reports this week suggest that the tariffs announced will be the highest amount set, giving countries the opportunity to take steps to bring the tariff amount down.
This morning, UK headline CPI reading slowed from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February, while core CPI inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, slowed to 3.5% from 3.7%. However, despite this cooling, we expect inflation to speed up again in the coming months due to rising energy prices and the soon-to-be increase to employer national insurance contributions and minimum wage as this is likely be passed on to consumers.
China’s economy showed promising signs in early 2025, with retail sales rising 4%, driven by the government’s strong efforts to boost domestic consumption and mitigate trade tensions with the US. Industrial production also grew by 5.9%, and fixed asset investment exceeded expectations with a 4.1% increase, adding a positive momentum to the outlook.
On Friday, Chinese policymakers lowered their inflation target to around 2%. By Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) had fallen 0.7% year over year, with core inflation—excluding food and energy—declining by 0.1% last month.
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.8 on Monday, marking its strongest expansion in three months and exceeding expectations. Since last October, the private-sector PMI has consistently stayed above the 50-point threshold that distinguishes growth from contraction.
This week has been relatively quiet for financial markets, but there are signs of renewed momentum in Europe’s luxury goods sector which, after a period of sluggish performance, appears to be enjoying moderate revival.
This week, the spotlight was on Ukraine-Russia peace talks, as US and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia. The US administration said it would hold direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war.
Speaking to European Union lawmakers on Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that inflation in the Euro Area appears on track to reach its 2% target in the coming months.
