Global equity markets kicked off the week on a strong footing after signs emerged that Washington and Beijing have agreed to pause their trade confrontation. The tariff increases on Chinese imports that were expected to land on the 9th of November now appear to be on hold.
UK inflation held steady at 3.8% in September, marking the third consecutive month at that level and delivering a welcome upside surprise for both markets and consumers. The breakdown showed food inflation easing further and price pressures moderating in recreational categories.
This week, headlines shouted loudly that the UK’s unemployment rate hit its highest level in four years, having ticked up to 4.8% in the three months to August.
Across the Eurozone, retail activity showed only marginal improvement in August, inching up by 0.1% – a weaker outcome than most economists had predicted. Year-on-year, sales were 1% higher, pointing to a modest degree of resilience in consumer spending.
Recent comments from Bank of Japan officials opened the door to further rate hikes, but fresh data may temper that stance.
Markets adopted a subdued tone this week as investors faced a limited flow of economic data. One notable development was news that US–India trade talks may become more complicated by the issue of India’s purchases of Russian oil – an unusual factor, given that such negotiations typically exclude third-party relationships.
The start of this week has brought with it a host of UK data that has allowed investors to speculate about the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on Thursday.
Trade figures for August between the United States and China suggested this week that global supply chains may be shifting in response to the latest round of American tariffs.
Eurozone inflation edged up to 2.1% in August, keeping it broadly in line with the European Central Bank’s 2% target after several months of stability.
Not long after President Trump imposed a 25% penalty on India over its purchases of Russian oil and weapons, a new wave of tariffs – this time 50% on Indian goods – come into force. Economists warn that such steep trade barriers could weigh heavily on Indian workers, many of whom are employed in labour-intensive export facing industries
